Probability estimates of notable people
The following table shows responses from notable people within the cryptocurrency community responses to the following question:
"Which cryptocurrencies do you think have the best chance to become the dominant non-censored cryptocurrency in 2030? Give the corresponding probability of each becoming the most dominant one. List at least five unless you think less than five have non-zero probability. You may use one slot as a catch-all to cover any crypto that doesn't exist yet."
In this context, "non-censored" means that anyone can use the cryptocurrency to send a payment to anyone else (even Al Qaeda), without the payment being blocked or made conditional on some approval process (like KYC). Note that non-censored is different than censorship resistant, which is more open to interpretation. Censorship resistance is more about how likely it is that a cryptocurrency will remain non-censored in the future. So by this definition Ethereum is now non-censored, even though people disagree about whether it's censorship resistant.
I'm attempting to get data from the following people plus others that are not yet listed, and will update the table as data comes in:
|Name and date of estimates||Estimates|
|<Sample Person> (Jan 5, 2018)||BTC: 50%, ETH: 25%, BCH: 10%, Doesn'tExistYet: 9%, ZEC: 5%|