Probability estimates of notable people

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Revision as of 20:53, 19 October 2018 by Elliotolds (talk | contribs)
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The following table shows responses from notable people within the cryptocurrency community to the following question:

"Which cryptocurrencies do you think have the best chance to become the highest market cap non-censored cryptocurrency in 2030? Give the corresponding probability for each one. List at least five unless you think fewer than five have non-zero probability. You may use a slot as a catch-all to cover any crypto that doesn't exist yet."

If some fork of BTC will win, that counts as BTC (but BCH does not count as BTC for this question, because those chains have already diverged).

"Non-censored" means that anyone can reliably use the cryptocurrency to send a payment to anyone else, without the payment being blocked or made conditional on some approval process (like KYC). Non-censored is different than censorship resistant, which is more open to interpretation. Censorship resistance is about how likely it is that a cryptocurrency will remain non-censored in the future. So by this definition Ethereum is now non-censored, even though people disagree about whether it's censorship resistant.

The intent of this is to gather people's intuitions, not to make them perform a detailed time-consuming analysis. It is expected that many participants will spend less than a minute answering. You should not expect people to be able to rigorously defend their estimates.

I'm attempting to get data from as many notable crypto people as I can. Those listed below are just the first I plan to ask. I'll update the table as more data comes in:

Name and date of estimates Estimates
<Sample Person> (Jan 5, 2018) BTC: 50%, ETH: 25%, BCH: 10%, Doesn'tExistYet: 9%, ZEC: 3%
Gavin Andresen ???
Brian Armstrong ???
Adam Back ???
Vitalik Buterin ???
Matt Corallo ???
Luke Dashjr ???
Daniel Krawisz ???
Charlie Lee ???
Jameson Lopp ???
Greg Maxwell ???
Naval Ravikant ???
Meni Rosenfeld ???
Amaury Sechet ???
Balaji Srinivasan ???
Nick Szabo ???
Paul Sztorc ??? -- asked on Jan 5th 2018:
Peter Todd ???
Wladimir J. van der Laan ???
Roger Ver ???
Erik Voorhees ???
Zooko Wilcox-O'Hearn ???
Pieter Wuille ???
Vlad Zamfir ???